I’m a Ph.D. student in Economics at LEM-CNRS (UMR 9921) University of Lille and at Ecole Normale Supérieure Paris-Saclay. My research interests are international macroeconomics and financial markets, with an emphasis on national and international financial cycles.
- Structure of Income Inequality and Household Leverage: Theory and Cross-Country Evidence (with Jérôme Héricourt and Rémi Bazillier) CEPII Working Paper (2017-01)
Abstract: How do income inequality and its structure affect the volume of credit? We extend the theoretical framework by Kumhof et al. (2015) to distinguish between upper, middle and low-income classes, and show that most of the positive impact of inequality on credit predicted by Kumhof et al. (2015) should be driven by the share of total output owned by middle classes. These theoretical predictions are empirically confirmed by a study based on a 44 countries dataset over the period 1970-2014. Exogenous variations of inequality are identified with a new instrument variable, the total number of International Labor Organization conventions signed at the country-level. Using various indicators of inequality, we support a positive impact of inequality concentrated on household leverage, and investigate how this average impact is distorted along income distribution. Consistently with the theoretical setting, our results tend to show that most of the impact is driven by middle classes, rather than low-income households. Consistently, our results hold mostly for developed countries.
2. Trilemma, Dilemma and Global Players CEPII Working Paper (2017-15)
The Online Appendix is available here .
Abstract: This paper investigates the debate between the Mundellian trilemma and the dilemma. Overall, the global financial cycle magnifies the binding effect of financial openness on monetary policy autonomy, thus at the same time sharply reducing the effectiveness of the floating exchange rate regime to isolate the domestic economy against financial pressures. I provide empirical evidence that the trilemma does not morph into a dilemma. Furthermore, the sensitivity to the global financial cycle depends less on the fluctuations of these financial forces than on the presence of global investors and global banks.
3. Fire Sales and Debt Maturity (Last version of the paper on request)
Abstract: How does debt maturity structure affect fire sales? By introducing debt maturity in a Fisherian deflation model, I demonstrate how it could trigger financial crises. Using a stock-flow analysis, I show that long-term debt could alleviate the risk of current binding collateral constraint, but an excessive reliance on long-term debt could generate future binding collateral constraints over long horizons. It is empirically confirmed by a study based on 122 developing countries over the period 1970-2012. I highlight that debt maturity structure is a good early-warning indicator of fire sales, which provides information that adds up to the level of external debt.
Work in Progress
- Financial Protection for Sale. (with Clément Nedoncelle)