I hold a Ph.D. in Economics from LEM-CNRS (UMR 9221) University of Lille and from Ecole Normale Supérieure Paris-Saclay. My research interests are international macroeconomics and financial markets, with an emphasis on national and international financial cycles.
- La relation circulaire entre inégalités de revenu et finance: tour d’horizon de la littérature et résultats récents, Revue d’Economie Financière, 2018, 128(1), 127-152 (with Rémi Bazillier and Jérôme Héricourt).
Abstract: How does debt maturity structure affect fire sales? By introducing debt maturity in a Fisherian deflation model, I demonstrate how it could trigger financial crises. Using a stock-flow analysis, I show that (i) an excessive reliance on short-term debt exacerbates the risk of financial crises through fire sales and (ii) it is driven by a rise in the term premium. These two testable predictions are empirically confirmed by a study based on 121 developing countries over the period 1970-2012. I highlight that debt maturity structure is a good early-warning indicator of fire sales, which provides information that adds up to the level of external debt.
Abstract: How do income inequality and its structure affect the volume of credit? We extend the theoretical framework by Kumhof et al. (2015) to distinguish between upper, middle and low-income classes, and show that most of the positive impact of inequality on credit predicted by Kumhof et al. (2015) should be driven by the share of total output owned by middle classes. These theoretical predictions are empirically confirmed by a study based on a 44 countries dataset over the period 1970-2014. Exogenous variations of inequality are identified with a new instrument variable, the total number of International Labor Organization conventions signed at the country-level. Using various indicators of inequality, we support a positive impact of inequality concentrated on household leverage, and investigate how this average impact is distorted along income distribution. Consistently with the theoretical setting, our results tend to show that most of the impact is driven by middle classes, rather than low-income households. Consistently, our results hold mostly for developed countries.
Work in Progress
- Financial Protection for Sale. (with Clément Nedoncelle)